Inflation

Understanding the Pros & Cons of Series I Bonds

Purchase Limitations, Lock-up Period, & Real Returns All Need to be Evaluated

Series I bonds are U.S. savings bonds designed to protect the value of your cash from inflation. And with inflation surging to 40-year highs, investors are especially interested in higher-returning, lower-risk investments.

But before making a decision to rush out and buy I bonds, make sure you understand the pros and cons first. This is critically important given that most will instinctively leap to own a security that pays out an annual rate of over 9% – but like any investment – know what you’re buying before you buy.

Taken directly from the U.S. Treasury Department:

“What’s an I bond?

A Series I savings bond is a security that earns interest based on both a fixed rate and a rate that is set twice a year based on inflation. The bond earns interest until it reaches 30 years or you cash it, whichever comes first.

What’s the interest rate on an I bond you buy today?

The fixed rate is locked-in for 30 years and is currently set at 0.00% for new bonds purchased today. The inlfation rate changes every six months in May and October (currently earning interest at an annual rate of 9.62 percent).

This is an important consideration because although the rate is currently very attractive, it is only maintaining it’s purchasing power due to high inflation. Compared to deposit accounts at the bank this is a good alternative. Keep in mind however that there is an opportunity cost for holding I Bonds for the long-term compared to stock investments that may provide better real (inflation-adjusted) returns over longer periods.

Who may own an I Bond?

Individuals: Yes, if you have a Social Security Number and meet any one of these three conditions: 

  • United States citizen, whether you live in the U.S. or abroad 

  • United States resident 

  • Civilian employee of the United States, no matter where you live 

To buy and own an electronic I bond, you must first establish a TreasuryDirect account.

Children Under 18

Yes, if they meet one of the conditions above for individuals.

Information concerning electronic and paper bonds:

  • Electronic bonds in TreasuryDirect. A child may not open a TreasuryDirect account, buy securities in TreasuryDirect, or conduct other transactions in TreasuryDirect. A parent or other adult custodian may open for the child a TreasuryDirect account that is linked to the adult's TreasuryDirect account. The parent or other adult custodian can buy securities and conduct other transactions for the child, and other adults can buy savings bonds for the child as gifts.

  • Paper bonds. Adults can buy bonds in the name of a child.

How can I buy I bonds?

  • Buy them in electronic form at TreasuryDirect.gov

  • Buy them in paper form using your federal income tax refund

What do I bonds cost?

You pay the face value of the bond. For example, you pay $50 for a $50 bond. (The bond increases in value as it earns interest.) 

  • Electronic I bonds come in any amount to the penny for $25 or more. For example, you could buy a $50.23 bond.

  • Paper bonds are sold in five denominations; $50, $100, $200, $500, $1,000

How much in I bonds can I buy for myself?

In a calendar year, you can acquire:

  • up to $10,000 in electronic I bonds in TreasuryDirect

  • up to $5,000 in paper I bonds using your federal income tax refund

Three Points:

  • The limits apply separately, meaning you could acquire up to $15,000 in I bonds in a calendar year

  • Bonds you buy for yourself and bonds you receive as gifts or via transfers count toward the limit. Two exceptions:

  • If a bond is transferred to you due to the death of the original owner, the amount doesn't count toward your limit

  • If you own a paper bond issued before 2008, you can convert it to an electronic bond in your account in TreasuryDirect regardless of the amount of the bond. (The annual limit before 2008 was greater than today's limit of $10,000.)

  • The limits are applied per Social Security Number of the first person named as owner of a bond or, for an entity, per Employer Identification Number

Can I buy I bonds as gifts for others?

Yes.

  • Electronic bonds: You can buy them as gifts for any TreasuryDirect account holder, including children.

  • Paper bonds: You can request bonds in the names of others and then, once the bonds are mailed to you, give the bonds as gifts.

How much in I bonds can I buy as gifts?

The purchase amount of a gift bond counts toward the annual limit of the recipient, not the giver. So, in a calendar year, you can buy up to $10,000 in electronic bonds and up to $5,000 in paper bonds for each person you buy for.”

MAKE SURE YOU UNDERSTAND I BONDS

One very important detail to especially keep in mind is that you need to hold your I bond for at least one year. And if you hold it for less than five years, you lose three months worth of earnings when cashing out.

Maybe the tax benefits and the protection against inflation are appealing to you. But like any investment, make sure I bonds fit well within your overall financial plan.

CLIENT QUESTION OF THE MONTH - What Should I Be Doing About Inflation?

It may be an understatement to say that inflation is a popular subject. The Consumer Price Index was up 7.1% in December from the year prior1.

Prices include expectations for inflation. On average, hundreds of billions of dollars of treasury bonds are traded daily2. Market participants incorporate their expectations around future inflation into their trades. As new information develops, they may reassess their expectations.

While the market is making its best estimate of inflation, there is a risk that those expectations are wrong. Because of that, the market will demand a premium for bearing the risk of unexpected inflation; this premium is reflected in the price of nominal bonds (bonds that aren’t inflation-protected).

Some investments touted as “inflation-sensitive,” may not behave the way investors are hoping. While some of these assets may have evidence of correlation, such as energy stocks and commodities, the assets’ nominal returns have been around 20 times as volatile as inflation3. This volatility may not be best suited for investors concerned about the variability of their purchasing power.

History shows us that stocks have outperformed inflation over time. Over the past three decades through June 2021, the S&P 500 had an annualized return of 8.5% after adjusting for inflation4. Dimensional’s recent article Will Inflation Hurt Stock Returns? Not Necessarily explores how in that time, there was not a reliable connection between periods of high inflation and stock returns.

But what about periods with double digit inflation, like the 1940s and 70s? We find similar results going back to 1927 through 2020. Exhibit 1 shows the real returns in years with above average inflation (5.5%) of asset classes ranging from various bonds, stocks, sectors, and even equity premiums. Each of these assets outpaced inflation except for T-Bills4. (T-Bills are short- term debt issued and backed by the full faith and credit of the US government.)

For investors who are sensitive to unexpected inflation, there are options available. One option, Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), are linked to changes in consumer price. An alternative is buying short-duration corporate bonds while using inflation swaps to protect against rising prices. This strategy involves more credit risk but offers higher expected returns and allows greater diversification relative to TIPS.

The best answer to the question "What should I be doing about inflation?" may be boring. History shows that stocks tend to outpace inflation over the long term—a valuable reminder for investors concerned that today’s rising prices will make it harder to reach their financial goals. What will next month’s inflation reading be? How will it compare to market expectations? Is the rise in inflation temporary or long-lived? Nobody has a crystal ball, but the data suggests that simply staying invested helps outpace inflation over the long term.

Average Annual Real Returns With Above Median Inflation

Source: https://my.dimensional.com/are-concerns-about-inflation-inflated

Returns are in US dollars. See the “Data Appendix” for additional information. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment.

 1 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL

2 In US dollars. Source: SIFMA, data for 2020.

3 Source: Dimensional Fund Advisors, Are Concerns About Inflation Inflated?

4 Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, S&P data © 2021 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global. All rights reserved. Based on non-seasonally adjusted 12-month percentage change in Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U).

Diversification neither assures a profit nor guarantees against a loss in a declining market. Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks, including changes in credit quality, liquidity, prepayments, call risk, and other factors. Inflation-protected securities may react differently from other debt securities to changes in interest rates.

Data Appendix

Real returns illustrate the effect of inflation on an investment return and are calculated using the following method: [(1 + nominal return of index over time period) / (1 + inflation rate)]

US inflation: The annual rate of change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U, not seasonally adjusted) from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

US government securities and long-term corporate bonds: The returns to US government securities (one-month T-bills, five-year notes, and long-term bonds) and long-term corporate bonds are from Morningstar (previously from Ibbotson Associates).

US equity portfolios and factors: The US equity market is proxied by the Fama/French Total US Market Research Index. The US industry portfolios are the 12 Fama/French industry portfolios. The US style portfolios (small cap value and growth and large cap value and growth) are from the Fama/French six portfolios sorted on size (market cap) and book-to-market equity. The US size and value premiums are proxied by the Fama/French size and value factors. The returns to all of the above are from Ken French’s data library: https://mba.tuck.dartmouth.edu/pages/faculty/ken.french/data_library.html